Warm Welcome, Tagus Community, April 10, 2026
Bitcoin - From Geopolitical Hedge to Potential Official Reserve Asset: Bitcoin’s relative resilience during the 2026 US–Iran conflict, particularly its lower sensitivity to rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar compared to gold, stems from its evolving role as a recovery asset rather than a traditional crisis hedge. Since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, 2026, through to the two week ceasefire announced on Apr. 8, 2026, gold dropped 9% while Bitcoin rose 7%, highlighting a significant performance divergence and the market’s shifting view on digital versus physical hedges. This shift occurs as foreign official outflows from US Treasuries and custodial holdings at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York point to a liquidity-driven adjustment rather than a structural exit from dollar assets. That said, emerging market central banks, including Turkey, India, and Thailand, are drawing down reserves to fund energy imports and stabilise currencies following the Strait of Hormuz oil and gas price shock. In this environment, gold is increasingly used alongside Treasuries for liquidity, with Turkey reducing holdings by 50–60 tonnes and Poland signalling potential monetisation of up to $13bn, confirming that gold remains secondary to dollar assets for active management during acute stress.
