Warm Welcome, Tagus Community, March 03, 2026
Polymarket Reprices US-Iran Ceasefire Odds but Risk Assets Too Resilient? The decentralised prediction market Polymarket has sharply pulled back expectations for an early U.S.–Iran ceasefire, with implied probabilities for a deal by Mar. 6 at just 7% and by Mar. 15 at 20%, down from as high as 43% on Mar. 2, marking a major repricing of the two-week horizon. Odds rise to 44% by Mar. 31 and 68% by Apr. 30, suggesting traders see resolution as more likely later in the quarter rather than imminent. Yet TradFi markets tell a more nuanced story. While gold and the U.S. dollar have strengthened, short-dated U.S. Treasuries have not rallied, with yields spiking instead, pointing to inflation and policy concerns rather than a classic safe-haven move. Risk assets such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have remained remarkably resilient despite these shifts in odds, i.e., polymarket pricing a more protracted conflict. However, Bitcoin’s resilience underscores its potential role as an alternative macro hedge.
