Warm Welcome, Tagus Community, July 08, 2026
Bitcoin Drawdown Momentum Moderates: The sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price, plunging over 50% from its historic peak and forcing more than half of the circulating supply into an unrealised loss, marks a significant market capitulation. Slipping below its four-year average cost basis, a metric that historically serves as a crucial line of defence, indicates that the market is entering a deep value territory. This deep value state is further confirmed by the current position of the Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), an on-chain metric used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its “fair value” cost basis, has now dropped directly into the oversold threshold and sits at its lowest point in the cycle. Historically, an MVRV Z-Score this low is associated with the later stages of a crypto winter. The current reading is now firmly in the range that in previous cycles marked a generational accumulation opportunity. While macro headwinds and the rigid rhythm of the four-year halving cycle imply that a definitive market bottom may still take time to form, these deeply discounted on-chain metrics, suggest that much of the speculative froth has already been thoroughly purged. As indicated below, structural differences in the preceding bull run also provide a strong case for a shallower bottom compared to past cycles, heavily influenced by the maturity of the institutional landscape.
