Warm Welcome, Tagus Community, March 10, 2026
Oil Slumps as Bitcoin Holds Firm: The past 24 hours delivered a clear divergence across asset classes, with Bitcoin again proving resilient as per analysis in Tagus <> Bytes: Mar. 9, 2026. Oil briefly spiked near $120 a barrel on fears of Strait of Hormuz supply disruption before retreating to around $90 after G7 finance ministers signalled preparations for strategic oil reserve release that could total 400mn barrels, potentially the largest coordinated drawdown in history. Stagflation concerns have weighed on equities as weak U.S. employment data and elevated inflation have left the Fed with limited room to respond, while expectations of tighter policy from the ECB and Bank of England gained traction amid energy-driven price pressures. TradFi assets later rebounded, however, on hopes the conflict may be nearing a conclusion after Donald Trump indicated the war against Iran could end “very soon”, with Polymarket showing more than two-thirds probability of conflict resolution by May 15 after peaking near 75%. The S&P 500 closed 0.8% higher after earlier falling as much as 1.5% (VIX also spiked to 30) and the Nasdaq gained 1.4%. Bitcoin has remained comparatively resilient, rising about 5% since the conflict began and outperforming gold, down 3.0%, and silver, down 5%. The return of the Coinbase premium, which measures the price gap between Coinbase and offshore exchanges and signals U.S. institutional demand, alongside the return U.S. ETF inflows (i.e. $167mn net inflows Mar. 9, 2026) suggests investors are treating current levels as an entry point after leverage has been flushed out. As the geopolitical risk premium in oil fades, Bitcoin appears to be attracting rotation into a non-sovereign asset while traditional safe havens have struggled to perform their usual roles.
