Warm Welcome, Tagus Community, June 10, 2026
Bitcoin Supply in Loss Crosses 50% as a Historical Signal for Cyclical Bottoms: Recent on-chain data suggest that more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently held at an unrealised loss, meaning many investors are underwater on their positions. Around 10.5mn BTC, just over 50% of the circulating supply, are held below their acquisition cost, a level historically associated with periods of significant market stress and, in some cases, cyclical bottoms. The fact that more than half of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now held at an unrealised loss is typically viewed as a late-cycle bear market signal. In past cycles, as indicated below, when loss-making supply exceeds profitable supply have coincided with phases of capitulation, where weaker holders exit and long-term investors begin accumulating. While this does not guarantee an immediate rebound, similar conditions in previous cycles have often emerged close to major market bottoms and have preceded eventual recoveries.
