Warm Welcome, Tagus Community, February 23, 2026
Tariff Reset Lifts Then Tests Risk Sentiment: The Supreme Court of the United States ruled 6–3 that Donald Trump’s global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (1977) were unconstitutional, placing $133.5bn of collected duties into legal limbo and initially lifting risk sentiment, including Bitcoin, on expectations that potential refunds could act as a quasi fiscal stimulus while reducing the risk of broad escalation. That relief has proven short lived as Trump moved to reimpose tariffs via a 10% baseline, subsequently raised to 15% (effective Feb. 24, 2026), for up to 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act (1974), while maintaining measures under Sections 301 (1974) and 232 (1962) and signalling further investigations. This shift creates a more fragmented tariff regime across countries and sectors, with relatively lower effective tariffs for previously targeted economies such as China and Brazil, and parts of Asia including India, while allies such as the UK and EU now face the flat baseline layered on existing sector tariffs in particular autos, steel, and aluminium. The result is a rise in the effective US tariff rate into the mid-teens from high single digits previously, tightening financial conditions and weighing on S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq futures, and Bitcoin. For Bitcoin, the impulse is now more mixed, with near term risk aversion offsetting earlier stimulus optimism, while over a longer horizon persistent fiscal strain and policy uncertainty could still reinforce its role as a hedge against US debt dynamics.
